Stage 5 load-shedding and worse after winter

Winter 2022 was already running ahead of Eskom's forecasts. In its April 2022 system update, Eskom said a worst-case winter could bring up to 101 days of load-shedding, assuming breakdowns stayed between 13,500 MW and 15,000 MW. Its own updates soon showed more than 15,000 MW regularly offline, so the worst case was turning into the normal case.

April went roughly to plan at 11 days, but needed stages 3 and 4 where only stage 2 had been expected. May was worse: 26 days against a plan of 22, and stage 4 against an expected stage 3.

Summer looked worse

Eskom's outlook planned load-shedding on 191 days over summer, far more than in winter. Demand drops in the warmer months, but Eskom uses that gap for maintenance on its power stations ahead of the next winter. From September 2022 its extreme scenario had stage 3 or 4 as routine, and that assumed more diesel burning at its open-cycle gas turbines than was realistic. Stage 5 and above was becoming likely between September 2022 and March 2023.

What the higher stages mean

Each stage is defined by how much capacity is shed and how often a household is switched off over four days:

Stage 5

Up to 5,000 MW shed. Up to 12 cuts over four days: nine of 2 hours and three of 4 hours.

Stage 6

Up to 6,000 MW shed. Six cuts of 2 hours and six of 4 hours.

Stage 7

Up to 7,000 MW shed. Three cuts of 2 hours and nine of 4 hours.

Stage 8

Up to 8,000 MW shed. Twelve cuts of 4 hours.

Eskom acknowledged a skills problem in keeping its stations running, and several power stations had also been hit by sabotage that tripped units or delayed their return from maintenance.

Figures are from Eskom's 2022 system status updates and stage definitions, as reported in the South African press at the time. This article was first published on this site in June 2022 and has been shortened.

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